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4.1 ★★★★★
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★★★★★ 5
A Captivating Look at Empires and America’s Future
Format: Kindle
This is an extraordinary book. Although it’s written by an economist, it is anything but boring. The author does an outstanding job of examining multiple empires across hundreds of years. He analyzes the rise and fall of each empire by segmenting their respective histories into different cycles. He then identifies the various cycles that each empire goes through, from its initial rise to its eventually fall. Each cycle is sub divided into key indicators such as military strength, budget deficits, wealth gaps, education, etc. In the end, the author looks at the United States using this same cyclical methodology.
Mr. Dalio’s arguments and analysis are sound and make good sense. His interpretation and description of various historical events, especially those pertaining to the British and Dutch empires, are right on target. Throughout the book, he is consistent in the application of his analytic model. This is noteworthy as I felt his analysis of China to be slightly flawed. The author appears to have omitted certain elements of modern-day China; most notably is the pending population time bomb caused by their previous one child policy. China’s population is now shrinking. In addition, and unlike America, the Chinese seem culturally incapable of using immigration to solve their problem. This opposing view of China, however, does not detract from the author’s overall analysis. He is consistent in his analysis and cites other data which support counter arguments.
Bottom line, this book was far more interesting than I anticipated. Even though the author’s analysis is complex, the book is well written and easy to understand. The narrative is both captivating and entertaining. Overall, this is just a great book.
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Reviewed in the United States on December 17, 2023
★★★★★ 4
Is the United States Getting Close to Multiple Simultaneous Crises?
Format: Hardcover
In this book, Dalio presents his model of the rise and fall of "empires". The closer it gets to the present day the more interesting the book is. The last three chapters of the book which deal with the rise of China, the current tensions between China and the US, the United States's alleged decline and Dalio's conjectures regarding the future are five stars. The build up to the final three chapters is decent, although only occasionally riveting: The book is only three stars before the strong close.
It is hard to evaluate the merits of Dalio's historical model given that he is only presenting it at moderate depths so as to introduce it all in one volume. The model says that empires rise and fall, no surprise, and talks about the interplay of economic, internal, and external factors that take an empire through the cycle. Dalio also mentions that inside the Big Cycle there are other cycles, and inside those cycles other cycles. He does not, however, go into much detail regarding the sub-cycles. This sounds reminiscent of Robert Prechter's Elliot Waves or perhaps, even, pre-Copernican astrology. Is this a model so loose, like Elliot Waves, that it can be found to fit anything that could happen? Is it falsifiable? Along the way was the validity tested by approaching an empire that there was little prior knowledge of to make "forward predictions" regarding what would happen? Has Dalio merely cherry picked the three examples which best seem to demonstrate the soundness of the model while omitting more problematic cases? There is not enough in this book to do a rigorous analysis.
The United States Civil War is a good example of something I had trouble thinking about in terms of the model. According to the model the final stage in an empire's breakdown is civil war or revolution. In the case of the United States, however, the Civil War occurred while the United States was still ascendant: in stage 2 out of 6 with stage 3 being the peak. Certainly there was no debt crisis which caused the Civil War and the United States had little going on in terms of external conflict at the time. So perhaps that could have been taken as a "prediction" that the United States would almost certainly have survived the Civil War in tact? The truth, however, is that the South came very close to winning the Civil War, in the sense of being recognized as independent, according to McPherson's Battle Cry of Freedom.
Another thing that I am not sure how to evaluate using the model is the United States after the Civil War and after the Revolution. Although these were periods of rebuilding they do not seem to fit well into Dalio's model. After victory in these conflicts Americans were very magnanimous (as it was later after World War II). Far from being purged those who were on the wrong side of history ended up facing rather little in the way of consequences. So how does this fit into the model? Obviously, there will be some "rebuilding" after a Revolution or Civil War so is the model just saying there will be something which could not not happen? Indeed although the United States was vibrant after the Revolution, the period after the Civil War as described in Richard White's The Republic for Which it Standards seems in decline compared to the Antebellum period. According to Dalio's model, however, the United States was stage 2 rising into stage 3 during this period.
Regardless of the merits of the model, which would probably require many in depth books to evaluate fully, there is definitely some good high level overviews of Chinese, European, and American history. There are many interesting charts and statistics thrown in.
As mentioned, the close of the book is far and away the best part of it. Dalio describes the cultural differences between Americans and Chinese people and their different outlooks toward governing. Dalio does not seem to be pushing any political agenda, at least not too hard, but rather what he has carefully measured to be objectively true. Although clearly an admirer of much about China, he is also willing to criticize some aspects of China. At the same time, his criticism omits its surveillance state.
Looking forward Dalio presents some very interesting charts and statistics regarding America's growing internal conflicts. He even has a graph to show how bad it is now compared to early points in history. Dalio is willing to stick his neck out and quantify what his model is predicting as the probability of civil war in the United States and the probability of military war with China in the next decade.
Although very thought provoking overall, one particularly persistent problem throughout the book is that many of the charts are very hard to read. There are graphs with eight different lines with some of the colors very hard to distinguish between. The book also almost never references its sources. Indeed, given how much history Dalio has obviously studied, a bibliography, or at least a list of recommendations, would be very nice.
Dalio is very repetitive regarding the inevitable death of fiat currencies through money printing. At the same time he also does provide concrete advise of how to prepare. He gives some definite timelines and the dates are very close. To qualify this, somewhat, however, his company Bridgewater Associates has basically had a "lost decade" using his models to generate any kinds of returns since his departure around 2012. Nevertheless it is interesting to think about whether or the US is on the verge of multiple simultaneous crises.
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Reviewed in the United States on February 1, 2022
★★★★★ 5
The past is the future? Focus on the big picture
Format: Hardcover
This book isn’t just about economics; it also takes a captivating look at history. Written in a style similar to his previous book, "Big Debt Crises," Ray presents history in cycles. To make things easier to grasp, he added some helpful features: passages are bolded for a quick read, and a red dot marks principles that are considered timeless and universal truths.
I really appreciate the QUICK-READ option. It’s so easy to overlook key points in a long book, but the bolded sections help me focus. For example, one universal truth is, "Throughout time, the formula for success has been a system in which well-educated people operating civilly with each other, come up with innovations, receive funding through capital markets, and own the means by which their innovation..."
The book is divided into three parts: How the world works, How it has worked over the last 500 years, and the Future. The first part explores the rise and fall of empires. The second offers an in-depth look at the Dutch Empire, the British Empire, the United States, and China. The last part looks ahead at what’s to come. The appendix even includes a computer-generated power score for 11 world-leading countries.
I haven’t finished the entire book yet, but after reading some chapters, I can say Ray did a fantastic job condensing 500 years of history into an accessible, engaging format. The graphs also help clarify his points.
It answered many questions I had, like how pandemics have impacted the world. Instead of flipping through multiple books to find answers, I can find everything I need here.
What I also really appreciate is Ray’s honesty. He doesn’t shy away from tough issues. If he's not an expert on something, he clearly states where he learned it from. He’s straightforward, sincere, and speaks his mind.
Even if you do not believe that history will repeat itself, you will still enjoy reading this book.
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Reviewed in the United States on December 1, 2021
★★★★★ 5
Phenomenal book, one major criticism
Format: Kindle
Great book. Dalio does a remarkable job seeing the bigger picture and providing confidence through historical events/ever repeating cycles that you can predict at a high level what is coming next for a given country or the world and plan accordingly. The corkscrew of evolution analogy is a perfect one, where the human race has up and down cycles but always trends up longer term thanks to technological innovation.
My one criticism is he speaks out of both sides of his mouth in one instance, presumably because he doesn’t want to upset any high ranking politicians or leaders he may be friends with, which I found to be disappointing.
On the one hand, he notes at the start of the book that no two democracies have waged war with each other, wars have only been fought between dictators/police states and democracies or just dictators/police states.
Then later on when discussing China, he all but excuses and rationalizes their increasingly authoritarian state, as seen by Xi crowning himself leader until death and abolishing the precedent of 2 5 year term limits as of 2018. He blesses the Chinese approach of a few rulers knowing what’s best for all, as if those rulers are acting in the broader interest of Chinese people, and that’s an acceptable alternative to democratic rule. He cites the recent video game ban as having merit or at least being understandable, suggesting that he thinks the ends can justify the means. All the while there’s no mention of the atrocities of Mao under this authoritarian type of rule, no mention of the Muslim genocide going on now, the suppression of free speech and jailings and beating and murders of those that oppose the current regime, no mention of internet censorship, etc.
To bring the criticism full circle, he doesn’t link his first point on wars and authoritarians always being involved in them, with the fact that China is an authoritarian state and therefore it’s rise threatens the free world and human progress. Ironically, he does correctly acknowledge China’s opening up to market and establishment of capitalist principles for rocketing them toward the US in terms of power, while refuses to critique the political system despite its history of failings, violence and pain. Russia invading Ukraine couldn’t drive this point (ie the civil or political system being as important as the economic system to the long term success of a country and world peace) home any harder.
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Reviewed in the United States on March 12, 2022
★★★★★ 5
Can be effectively used as a working tool for the predictor (not just for investments)
Format: Hardcover
This is one of the best works on the declining economy and US, associated possible revolution/civil war and later major power war, that is presented in a clear, convincing and replicable way. Kudos to Dalio!! More importantly, the contents of the book can be used to predict upcoming events rather than just perceiving the world on fire with several likely upcoming breakouts (e.g., war with China over Taiwan, the likely loss of our reserve currency, the unsustainable and uncontrollable burgeoning national debt which grows by a trillion USD every 100 days). The author makes a valid case that significant events are moving very rapidly and, for the rest of the 2020s, things are going to get a whole lot worse for the non-elites in our society. Of note, the book was actually written in 2020, published the next year, which then allows the readership now in 2025 to verify the accuracy the observations and predictions. Right on target!
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Reviewed in the United States on June 4, 2025
